May 31, 2003

We are now witnessing the collapse of the myriad Bush administration myths about why the USA had to invade Iraq. Only a very naive or uninformed person - or a close and cosy relative of George W. Bush - would still believe that the invasion was justified without UN support.

Of course Saddam was a bad man, and certainly he deserved to be expelled from power by a concerted international push. Of course the UN should have forced him from power ten years ago or more, just as they should force other despots like Robert Mugabe from power today. But what the US did was wrong - the way they did it was wrong - and this is becoming increasingly obvious to the wider public. (Note: Britain, Australia and even Poland must share the blame for pretending that the Emperor had clothes on).

So now it it time to ask: WHY DID THEY DO IT?

The answer, obvious enough once the other myths are exploded, is OIL.

So, what now? Iraq is perhaps the only nation on earth capable of seriously challenging Saudi Arabia as the World #1 oil exporter. The Americans will clearly want to maintain control of this oil for the next hundred years (or at least until it is all gone). The obvious fix would be to "sell" all the Iraqi's oil to the USA at very attractive prices. In return, the USA will give the Iraqis ... what? Hmmn... How about ongoing military and administrative support? Well, that won't be necessary once the Iraqis regain control of their country and set up a stable, model democracy, right?

Hands up anyone who thinks the instability in Iraq will be resolved anytime soon.


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