Iraq Likely To Break Up, Triggering M.E. Upheaval

Britian's Royal Institute of International Affairs, which advises the Queen and Government ministers, says: "Iraq will be lucky if it manages to avoid a breakup and civil war.. Moreover, Iraq could become the spark for a regionwide upheaval. "

It says the most likely scenario is the violent breakup of Iraq:

"Under this scenario, Kurdish separatism and Shitte assertiveness work against a smooth transition to elections, while the Sunni Arab minority remains on the offensive," it said.

The breakup could occur regardless of whether "the U.S. cuts and runs" or whether "U.S. forces try to hold out and prop up the central authority," it said...

A breakup of Iraq, moreover, would have dire results in the region as well, the report said, by giving extremists in neighboring countries greater freedom: militant Sunnis operating from Iraq could undermine Saudi Arabia; independent Iraqi Kurds could incite Kurdish movements in Syria, Iran and Turkey; militant Iraqi Shiites could attempt to consolidate with Shiite communities in Iran, Lebanon, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. "