Is The Fat Lady Singing? NO!!!

(NB reposting this after Blogger crashed before I went to sleep - now I wake up to this!)

Bizarre. Watching the news on TV a few hours ago, I was 99% sure that Bush had the White House in the bag and it was just a question of WHEN.

But come on the Net, check out a few reputable sources, and - surprise! - it's only 2 electoral votes difference. Kerry CAN still win it... for now.



At the moment, unfortunately, even just discovering the reality-based facts is painfully difficult... A Google News search throws up tons of garbage. CNN? Naah... too partisan, even if sites like Buzzflash are linking to them as "proof". Josh and Kos have gone to bed.... So who to trust? BBC? ABC Online? Reuters? The madness is all-consuming and the media frenzy is in full swing.

Here's an example of the craziness, as reported by Reuters at 05:48 AM ET:

President Bush is convinced he has won re-election but will hold off a formal victory declaration to give Democrat John Kerry "time to reflect" on the results, White House Chief of Staff Andy Card said on Wednesday.

After a few minutes of careful, comparitive reading, it turns out the key is this: "Without Ohio, neither candidate reached the magic number." Why does it take a few minutes to work that out? You tell me...

And from what I can see right now, Ohio is going to end up in the courts - believe it. Unless Kerry wimps out.

At the moment, Mr Bush is ahead in the counted vote by about 145,000. According to the Ohio election officials there are estimated to be about 175,000 provisional votes but Democrats say it could higher [as much as 250,000]. The deadline for these votes to be checked and counted is 15 November.

In fact, even before the polls opened, there were enough shenanigans in Ohio to keep the courts busy for a year. Josh Marshall's blog has plenty of details.

A friend at work today was joking that the 2008 election will be between Arnold Schwarzennegger and Michael Moore. But it looks like Moore could be a big key to THIS election, and its aftermath. Moore has teams of ameteur cameramen filming the shenanigans and is posting details of voter intimidation, trickery and other actionable misdemeanors on his website. Check out comments from the hot state of Ohio. For example:

I woke up this morning to hear on the radio that people on one of our residential greens were passing out fliers that Republicans vote today and Democrats vote tomorrow. Who came up with such an awful, evil scheme? It's actions like that which literally shit on America's great idea of democracy.

Or what about this:

FYI: Ohio Absentee Ballot Shenanigans - Nader Still On Ballot

According to Ohio law, the results could take two more weeks to become clear. Who would believe this could happen again? (keep reading....)

At the same time, as you probably know by now, Republicans have apparently expanded their majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives and knocked off Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota. Bush will win the popular vote, unlike last time. He is ahead by 51% to 48% with only 1% for Nader (isn't HE going to be popular?).

But the Bush White House still has a major credibility problem - many voters, for example, do not even believe he won Florida. WHERE IS THE PAPER TRAIL??? Oh, there is none: Bush's brother Jeb decided it wasn't necessary. Do we believe him?

Do we trust the numbers?

Do we trust the mainstream media?

Do we trust Diebold?

Here's a comment from Kos' blog:

They stole it. Literally. The numbers make no sense. The rallys, the lines at the polls, the endorsements. There is only one way Bush could win, and there is not much we can do about it. Remember those teachers who were kicked out of his rally for wearing 'support our civil liberties' shirts? We just lost whatever we had left. The environment, the economy, the SUPREME COURT, health care, and the bill of rights are all screwed. But I guess they already were. I draw the line right here in my family, though. There is no way Bush is getting my 18 yr. old son. No way.

Finally, through the fog, comes a very welcome piece of new from my trusted local paper, The Sydney Morning Herald:

Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell said today it would take 11 days for a final result to be declared in the battleground midwest state so that the US presidential election can be decided.

"I tell everybody, just take a deep breath and relax. We can't predict what the results are going to be," Blackwell, the state's top election official, told CNN television.

Blackwell said that under state law, Ohio election officials would begin counting outstanding provisional ballots 11 days from yesterday, on November 13.

Many provisional ballots have been cast by military members serving overseas, he said.

"We're not going to start counting those [provisional] ballots until the 11th day after the election," Blackwell said.

Well, as an Australian, let me tell you something else: there are PLENTY of US voters overseas who have seen exactly how abhorrent the Bush regime appears to the rest of the world, and these are the votes that remain to be counted. If overseas votes ended up turning the election Kerry's way, that would be somewhat ironic... but deeply satisfying to yours truly!

Additional thoughts:

1. How's FOX News going to look for the next 2 weeks, having already called Ohio for Bush, when the state's own leaders say it's not decided? Are the shareholders going to like that?

2. Here's a wierd quote:

"There are 140,000 provisional ballots. Historically, only 7 to 20 percent of those would be counted," said Bush-Cheney communications director Nicolle Devenish. "Even if twice that many end up getting counted, he can't close the gap of his defeat in the state. It's desperate."

Where did that 7 to 20 percent figure come from? If it's true, why are all the other votes not counted? Are the lazy mainstream media buying this? Come to think of it, where did the 140,00 figure come from too??

3. From the Karen Hughes - Karl Rove Mutual Appreciation Society, here's this quote from the supposedly more feminine half of the two member team:

Right before I came over here from the White House, [Bush campaign advisor] Karl Rove came into the Roosevelt room where the senior staff had gathered and he said we're going to win Florida and we have. And then he said, I think we're going to win Ohio and we will...

Did Karl actually know that, or did he just believe...?

4. Read this NYT article. Do it...!

n the aftermath of this civil war that our nation has just fought, one result is clear: the Democratic Party's first priority should be to reconnect with the American heartland.

I'm writing this on tenterhooks on Tuesday, without knowing the election results. But whether John Kerry's supporters are now celebrating or seeking asylum abroad, they should be feeling wretched about the millions of farmers, factory workers and waitresses who ended up voting - utterly against their own interests - for Republican candidates.

One of the Republican Party's major successes over the last few decades has been to persuade many of the working poor to vote for tax breaks for billionaires... (read the story here)

Is it all just a question of marketing?

5. Two things are certain: FOX called Ohio too early and the White House declared victory too early. Why? Is that just part of the marketing?

6. Isn't calling a Presidential candidate "delusional" a bit insulting, actually?

7. "Oil has leapt back above $50 as President George W. Bush edges towards US election victory, a result which traders say will bolster fuel demand and underpin anxiety over security of Middle East supply." - Reuters gives you the heads-up on the next 4 years if Bush wins.

8. WE HAVE A WINNER!!! Ha!

9. Meanwhile, US warplanes continue the Massacre Of Falluja...

10. The reader comments at BBC news are absolutely painful... This one sure reminded me of Australia's vote last month:

The status quo seems to be more important than the truth in this nation and nobody wants to stand up for what is right...

This comment is also food for thought:

All I know is that I'm proud to know that my state, the Great State of Illinois, is clearly going to Kerry (21 electoral votes) and we just the elected third African-American Senator since Reconstruction, who will probably be the first Black President one day (take in mind, I'm white) I did my part... I did all I could without violence. - Conor, Chicago, IL

11. Spare a thought for the Gitmo detainees and other victims of Bush's neo-Fascist regime.