April 19, 2004

A new leaflet is being widely distributed in Baghdad. It says:

'Do not go out of your homes. Keep your families off the streets... Combined Mujahideen Brigades are coming to Baghdad.'

The major highways north, south and west of Baghdad have been blocked by US forces in response to "terrorist" threats. Najaf, where rebel cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's is still holed up under seige, is just two hours south of Baghdad.

Members of al-Sadr's "Army of the Mahdi" have pledged to launch a general war if the US invades Najaf, and the sentiment appears to be widespread across Iraq, with senior clerics using criticism of al-Sadr as a bargaining chip to stop a full-scale US attack. It's a similar story in Falluja.

If the US does launch an all-out attack (and wouldn't that be a surprise, with neo-cons directing operations from their Washington Video Conference lounge-chairs?), we can expect widespread uprisings across Iraq, with members of the new "Iraqi" police and army forces likely to stand aside or even turn against the US-led forces. That should provide some more great footage for war-crazed Western television viewers.

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