Iraq End-game?

A whole new phase of fighting has begun in Iraq.

Last time it flared up this suddenly was following Paul Bremer's decision to close down al-Sadr's local newspaper. The US said they would bring al-Sadr to justice for a murder charge he has always claimed is bogus. But US troops were unable to prevail over al-Sadr's "Mehdi Army" and eventually called their own truces on the streets of Najaf and the Baghdad slums where al-Sadr's support is strongest.

In the month since then, al-Sadr has even been invited to participate in high-level government talks with a view to power sharing. But al-Sadr was always very wary of the US and their "sovereign" puppets, and perhaps rightly so.

Last week US soldiers re-entered Najaf and surrounded al-Sadr's house. It seems they have once again decided - after giving up last time - to make an example of al-Sadr, although they deny they are targetting him (maybe coz they didn't catch him?). In response, al-Sadr has declared jihad and called on all Iraqis to join the "revolution". Iraqis appear to be responding, unless the violence is just a wave of renewed US aggression (hard to tell exactly, since most of the reporters in Iraq are now permanently "embedded" in their hotel rooms).

Aljazeera reports that fierce clashes have been raging throughout Iraq:

"From Hilla to Balad, Falluja to Najaf, Iraq was rocked by intense clashes as Muqtada al-Sadr's forces vowed resistance against the US and British occupation of the country.

Fighting raged unabated in and around Najaf on Thursday and early Friday between Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia and US troops who were called in to support Iraqi national guardsmen. By late evening on Thursday, several buildings were on fire in the holy city..."

It's interesting that the US media - which now treats most stories as secondary to the election hype - has at least started counting Iraqis casualties (but are they just the "good" Iraqis?).

The best place to get coherent, up-to-date analysis of what's going on - for those who care - is Juan Cole's Blog. Cole notes that Iraq's most senior Muslim cleric, al-Sistani, has fallen ill (do the CIA still do poisoning?) and says his death could lead Iraq towards a more radically Islamic and non-democratic future, not that they are getting much of real democracy as it is.

The Independent speculates that PM Allawi may be about to declare martial law, which would undoubtedly make life even harder for ordinary non-violent Iraqis. No word yet on whether Dubya will also be declaring martial law in the USA.